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Researcher Warns Dual Mode Is Hyped |
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Written by Adam Gosling
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Wednesday, 28 February 2007 |
In the shadow of a glowing report card issued this week by Juniper
Research, another industry wathcer has coimne out and poured cold water
on the prospects for Dual Mode handset sales over the next three years.
In a new report from research firm Ovum says the telecoms industry is
too focused on dual-mode phones despite the fact that people "working
in the trenches" are beginning to have doubts about the chances of dual
mode taking off.
As a result the tech number cruncher says that as little as 2 per cent
of users may have a dual mode mobile phone by 2010 compared to Juniper
Research which this week predicted that Dual Mode Mobile Handsets sales
(Cellular/VoIP over Wi-Fi) will dominate the market generating almost
US$68 Billion in revenues by 2012.
"We predict that by the end of 2010, only just over 2% of mobile
subscribers, or less than five and a half million people, will have
purchased dual-mode services, almost ten years after vendors first
began talking up the potential of the technology," says Jan Dawson, the
report's author and VP of Ovum's US Enterprise Practice.
"Equipment vendors have been fixated on dual-mode phones as the key
form of fixed-mobile convergence, but the people responsible for
implementing this at the carriers are really skeptical that the devices
and solutions are ever going to be ready for prime time." Dawson warns.
The ovum analysts say carriers ought to look elsewhere for an FMC
solution to avoid missing the boat. Instead Ovum thinks identity
convergence might be a better approach to the solution. Identity
convergence would allow users to assume the same identity-phone number,
email address, usernames and passwords-whether they are using a wired
or wireless device.
"But it is actually the online portals-Yahoo!, Google, MSN and others -
that are taking the lead in this area, and not the carriers, which risk
being left behind," says Dawson.
On the business side, carriers and vendors need to focus their
attention on mobile extension and enterprise gateway services which
will provide intelligent call routing and control to enterprises
seeking to bring down mobile spending. "These solutions are going to
deliver many of the benefits people associate with dual-mode solutions
without the costs and hassle of deploying a WiFi infrastructure for
voice, or the limitations of dual-mode devices," says Dawson.
"Overall, it's time for a reality check and for carriers to move on to
the forms of fixed-mobile convergence which have real potential for
commercial launch. Recent merger and acquisition activity has left us
with three major players with a significant opportunity to combine
wireline and wireless offerings, but we've yet to see any real moves in
this direction. Now is the time to act."
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